Wyo @ boise discussion and predictions

Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:00 am

I’m seeing very little in the way of chatter and maybe it’s because hunting season is in full sway

From watching boise state this year I have some observations.

They certainly are not an offensive powerhouse. They have struggled with consistency.

They look like there old selves one week like against Washington state where they lost in Triple overtime and put up big numbers. To eking out a win against New Mexico (that game was crazy close until late. )

It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what makes them on or off but the defense is curious.

As you can see their defense will look very good one week and then for no apparent reason will look poor later.
They looked good against San Diego state for example, dominated them but then gave up 42 to Virginia(I realize Virginia is a good team not 4 tds better then sdsu imo)

In short if we are going to beat boise we need to have our best defensive game yet and win a low scoring affair if they score 35 it’s over.

Prediction 20-17 pokes pull out a hard fought win over the smurfs on the blue turf for the first time in Wyoming history. We own the turnover margins and make just enough offensive plays to pull it out.

(I fully acknowledge my brown and gold goggles with my prediction) this really would be a HUGE win and I really want to see it happen

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:09 am

Yeah I don't know what to think about this game. I chocked this game up as an L before the season. But after watching so far this Boise team seems so distant from the BSU teams of the last decade. They lost to a building Virginia team, struggled with a lowly New Mexico team, and then beat San Diego State in San Diego. I think we could be one of the better defenses they've seen but I am afraid our offense won't be able to take advantage of what I believe will be a great defensive game. Sadly I think the results will be similar to the New Mexico game.

Hope the Pokes prove me wrong!

Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:32 am

The 14 point betting spread means I have to take Boise. I don't like it, but BS by at least 17 and more likely over 21. The fact that the Pokes can't run makes all the difference.

Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:12 pm

With how pathetic our offense is I don't think we'll win. Hopefully we can keep it close

Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:48 pm

Hey, USU beat BYU worse than BSU did, and we beat USU, so...

Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:53 pm

I watched Boise against Washington St. And the final score of that game is somewhat misleading.

Boise completely dominated WSU for 3.5 qtrs. WSU couldn't even get past the 50 yard line offensively until late 4th qtr. Boise's defense completely dominated them and Boise was up 31-10 with 8 minutes left in the game.

WSU only got back into it because the Boise backup QB tried to pitch a ball up in the air when he was falling down and WSU defense picked it off and returned it for a pick 6. Then the WSU back up qb came in and drove them down the field once and Boise fumbled a punt inside their own 20 to set WSU up again to tie it and send it to OT.

So between what I saw the Boise defense do to WSU and what they did to SDSU last week and the fact they probably had this game circled since we beat them last year I think they will kick our butts this week. I don't see how our offense is going to move the ball on them at all.

Hope I am wrong but I don't see us winning this one. This could get ugly.

Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:13 pm

We've never played a competitive game in Boise. We've won 2 close games over MWC cellar dwellers in which we needed turnovers and special teams to escape. I see a big beat down coming.

Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:51 pm

These are two inconsistent teams with struggling offenses. I can see Wyoming winning. I can also see Wyoming getting run off the blue turf. Curious to see who has the energy edge in this one, BSU played like their lives depended on it vs. SDSU. I frankly haven't ever seen Long's teams get completely undone like that. Will BSU have a hangover, or rip Wyo's guts out?

Gun to my head (what a terrifying scenario!), I think Wyo covers the spread but loses...but overall there aren't many scenarios that would blow me away Saturday.

Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:08 pm

The good news is that Rypien is having a terrible season. The bad news is that Cozart will likely come in and own us if Rypien struggles. It also looks like Mattison's turned into a legitimate runningback for them, after hardly getting any carries vs New Mexico or Virginia.

Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:35 pm

I think... we win. Allen had to go off at some point and I think he's getting comfortable with the wideouts. Defense keeps up the turn over trend.

Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:43 pm

We have a relatively opportunistic d and special teams. If we can get 2 or 3 tds from d and/or special teams we might be in this.

Not being Debbie downer but outside of big plays, we've been largely outplayed this year. I'm excited that in a "down" year, we are finding ways to win, but you live by the sword, you die by the sword. I think BSU is good enough to not let big plays happen. Without those big plays, I think BSU cruises 17+.

Gotta have scores from units other than the O to cover.

Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:05 pm

I like our coaching better than theirs as well. I know this is not a popular opinion, but I would take our coaches game plan over theirs all day long. The offense will open up a little bit more, building on the success of the 2nd half of last game and letting JA be JA. We won't be able to run at all, which isn't good. At the end of the game I think we win a close one. Either that or the blue turf and the flying Elvis's will overwhelm us and we go down by 30.

While Boise still might have slightly better athletes than us, it is really fun to see how Bohl is closing the gap with the best in the MWC.

Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:10 pm

I gave us little chance to win last year and we barely won. I give us even less this year on the smurf turf. You never know but unless our offense starts clicking, we won’t win. Is 28pts enough to win?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:23 pm

laxwyo wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:10 pmIs 28pts enough to win?

I think 28 is enough if those points come from the offense actually moving the ball and keeping our defense off the field for at least half the game. I do think we have a chance of shutting them down if they don't get to wear our front down.

Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:48 pm

One part of the game I look at closely is our run game. They come into the game 13th in the country in run defense (102 ypg) while we come in 123rd in run offense (97.8). That's something I NEVER expected to say about a Bohl/Vigen run attack. Can we somehow break through, or will we have to rely on Allen to win this game?

I think this could be a big Josh Allen game. I think it may have to be. A positive is he's coming off his best performance outside of the Gardner-Webb and Texas State games. Hopefully that can give a little confidence going forward. The Boise game was one of his first breakout performances last season, so maybe they can give him some mojo again.

On both sides of the ball, one team has an advantage in the ground game while the other has the advantage in the passing game. The biggest advantage for either team coming in the Boise run defense, as I mentioned above. Whichever team can exploit those advantages will have the best chance to win this game.

Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:48 am

We do have to do better in pass protection or josh is going to get hurt

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:40 am

Last weekend I saw a true option play that netted a first down.

Could that be how we win this one? Just a handful of option plays would totally blow BSU's defensive game plan.

Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:51 am

Lost Poke wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:40 am Last weekend I saw a true option play that netted a first down.
Could that be how we win this one? Just a handful of option plays would totally blow BSU's defensive game plan.

Two handfulls plus a few (well rehearsed) trick plays, all executed QUICKLY, might help.

Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:53 am

Adv8RU12 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:51 am Two handfulls plus a few (well rehearsed) trick plays, all executed QUICKLY, might help.

Yeah, Josh getting the ball out quickly is going to be key. The few times he has protection, I'd like to see more of those pump fakes that made USU's entire secondary bite on CJ's TD.

Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:44 pm

I think we're going to give Boise a better game in Boise than SDSU did in San Diego.

Why?

We have a full compliment of weapons and linemen for the first time this season. We started the season missing Fort and Price. We lost some linemen along the way. Now, we've got everyone back. We'll need our defense and special teams to keep up the good work, but I think our offense might click against Boise. A couple of things make me feel good about our chances of generating offense against Boise.

1. Boise likes to overload certain positions on defense. They overloaded the box against SDSU and dominated them because Chapman can't throw the ball deep. They'll double your best receiver if you're passing the ball. With all of our weapons, I think we can keep Boise guessing and catch them in the overload.

2. Last year we killed Boise with 2 things offensively. Hollister had a huge game when Boise tried to double Gentry or overload the box. We released Hollister up the seam and got some explosive plays out of the tight end. Austin Fort is our best receiving threat at tight end. He's taller, faster, more athletic, and can jump higher than our other options. I don't think it was an accident that he got no targets last week. I think they were playing him up to speed for Boise and didn't want to show tape of him catching the ball.

3. Last year Boise got burned by Josh Allen running for first downs. Since they do like to overload on defense, they can't account for everyone. Josh had opportunities to pick up a lot of first downs scrambling. I don't think that's going to change. With a full arsenal of receivers and tight ends, and our strongest o line this season, Josh might catch them overloading again this year.

4. Confidence is high for Wyoming right now and I think it will be as high as it's been all year for Josh Allen. We got a road win in a building we haven't had success in recently in Logan. Josh has a full tool box tomorrow night. C.J. is playing his best ball of the season. James Price is starting to come into his own, Austin Conway can get open and burn you, and Austin Fort gives us a legit receiving threat at tight end. Add that into our new ability to pass to Van Mannen, and we have a lot of guys to account for. They aren't as good as the guys last year, but they are good enough to get open against Boise, especially since they're likely to play a lot of man coverage.

It will take a complete game to beat them, but I kind of like our chances to pull off a shocker upset this weekend. I think our offense will look better than it has all year against a team that just dominated SDSU.

I like our chances in this one, and I know I'm risking a massive prediction by saying that. There's my nuts on the table. I think we might beat Boise for the first time ever on the blue.