Laramie County is not where the big Wyoming producers are focusing their resources. Going by county wide production in December 2015, Laramie County was 7th in production (12th in natural gas). Things are going to be tight for a bit yet with coal looking to be in a rough spot for a while, but our fortunes do not rest on Laramie County oil production. There was one developer saying in the Star Trib that a certain Wyoming basin was looking better than their North Dakota assets. Further, read up on the Trib's recent stories about coal vs oil/natural gas leasing now, and try to read in between the lines. As that is publicly available information, that is all I will say on that.OrediggerPoke wrote:I'm with you; I just don't see oil production saving the State's coffers either. Even at $70/bbl, the Bakken is not all that profitable and the Middle East has little reason to let our unconventional producers capture additional market share. Also, keep in mind that in Wyoming's 'new frontier' of oil development in Laramie County, the minerals are almost entirely owned by private individuals and companies. The largest portion of Wyoming's revenue on oil and gas comes from state owned and federally owned minerals (Wyoming gets half of the 1/8 federal royalty).GoPokes86 wrote:Unfortunately, this is completely true. The worst thing that happened for western natural gas was the Marcellus shale discovery. When wells IP at over 25mmcf/day they can easily respond to peak needs in the highest population area and highest demand area in the country with even a modest drilling program. I highly doubt we will ever see gas over $4/mcf in the next 10 years which is the point that the State is able to stack money in the coffers. Unless oil reaches $70+/bbl and is sustained and we find a Bakken/Wolfcamp like basin in Wyoming funding is going to be tough.OrediggerPoke wrote:Agreed, not just the University of Wyoming but the whole state is at a critical juncture. Funding is going to be a growing major major concern.ragtimejoe1 wrote:Nobody better laugh unless your primary school is P5.
Coal is being displaced by gas for electric generation faster than anyone could have reasonably predicted (in 2007 coal accounted for 49% of the grid, in 2014 coal accounted for 39% of the grid, in 2015 coal accounted for 33%, in 2016 there is a belief it may fall into the 20s). The increased gas production is unlikely to come from Wyoming in any meaningful way to offest the loss of coal production (these Eastern wells really are that good). I'm not crying wolf, we have some serious funding concerns going forward even when commodity prices recover.
We certainly can't just bury our head in the sand and say 'it will come back just like it always does.'
It is going to be interesting to see how college football shakes out. Right now it seems that the P5 is holding all the cards, but I have the feeling if they try to make a semi-pro situation, other parties will get involved in ways we may have no real idea yet.
In the meantime now is the time for our AD to really get to work to secure other sources of funding. Same goes for the state and local gov's and most importantly the people of Wyoming. Easy money times are gone now, time to get an entrepreneur spirit.
