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While I was at the store, figured I'd take a peak at some of the preseason magazines. SDSU is the unanimous league favorite, Wyoming being featured in the 4-5 range. Not too surprising.

All that aside, there seems to be a feeling around the program that this team could really win the MW. What do you guys think? Anything below 4th a failure in your eyes? Obviously it all comes down to Nance being healthy.

A look around the MW...

Air Force - They'll be pesky, but losing Coggins hurts
Boise State - Drmic/Marks return, Watkins is gone though. Broncos landed rare Top 100 recruit.
Colorado State - So much for all those transfers.
Fresno State - Dark horse to shock this winter.
Nevada - No Burton, almost a given they'll digress.
New Mexico - No Williams, Kirk. Recruiting was unimpressive for Lobos standards.
San Diego State - Clear league favorite.
San Jose State - They'll do what they can.
UNLV - Recruiting off the charts good, but coaching still an issue.
Utah State - Could be absolutely dreadful. Roster took a step in front of a semi.
Wyoming - Another dark horse if Nance is a full go.

If nance doesn't have setbacks, we are legit 2-3

No injuries anything less than 2 is unacceptable in my eyes. But we have legit depth finally and we should be the dark horse to bring home a title but we have to have road wins against the top 3 UNLV, SDSU & UNM. If we can't beat at least 2 of them on the road we finish no better than 3rd without help from them blowing a game.

Also have to protect the AA can't let people beat us at home!

I have lost my optimistic BeaverPoke attitude for football, but for basketball I am as optimistic as ever.
I expect to make the NCAA Tournament, and have at least 1 MWC title (regular or tourney) this season.

All of that hinges on Nance though.

I think our starting lineup is going to be the best in the MW, even better than SDSU.

Grabau-good ball handler, 3 pt shooter, senior leadership
Josh Adams- Most exciting player in the MW if not the NCAA. Breaks onto the scene this year
Hankerson- Surprise of the MW. He takes a step forward and finally feels comfortable in Wyo. Takes off.
Cooke- Big time improvements again, mostly because Nance is there to hide his flaws.
Nance- Best player in the MW if not the country. Senior leadership. Steps into the legend status with Marcus Bailey, Fennis Dembo, and other greats.

Nance is going to lead this team to a new level. There are going to be some scary moments in terms of "Why can't we get over the hump?" and "Here we go again". But Nance is not let that going to happen. Nance will take games over and refuse to lose.

I fully believe it is time for a MWC Title or 2, this season.
It is time for a Top 25 ranking.
It is time for a Sweet 16.

This team can replicate what the 2002 team did, but take it 1 win further.

I won't say anything like Elite 8 or Final 4, but Sweet 16.

Not worried about the starters, just wondering how the guys behind them will do. That has been our Achilles Heel the last few years.

I don't think WYO has enough proven depth to expect a top 2 MW finish, even with Nance at 100%. Currently I am expecting top 4 finish and to be playing on friday night at the MW tournament, assuming Larry is able to regain his form by conference season.

calpoke25 wrote:I don't think WYO has enough proven depth to expect a top 2 MW finish, even with Nance at 100%. Currently I am expecting top 4 finish and to be playing on friday night at the MW tournament, assuming Larry is able to regain his form by conference season.

So no different that last season?

Last season we didn't finish top 4, but were one win from tied for 3rd, and 2 wins from 3rd outright.

Considering we lost some games we wouldn't have lost with Nance in there, I don't see how you think we don't improve with Nance there all season.

We should not have lost the AFA or Boise games last season, and would not have lost them with Nance in there.
Hell we were up HUGE on Boise and had a total meltdown.

With Nance, we take 3rd outright last season.

Not to be condescending or anything I just don't see how we don't improve this year.
And this year we actually have depth for the first since Shyatt has been here.

Trey Washington will be a lot better this year. McManamen is coming off the redshirt. Alan Herndon is supposed to be good. We have some bigs that give Nance and DC some rest. We have some guards that are supposed to give Grabau and Adams some rest.

calpoke25 wrote:I don't think WYO has enough proven depth to expect a top 2 MW finish, even with Nance at 100%. Currently I am expecting top 4 finish and to be playing on friday night at the MW tournament, assuming Larry is able to regain his form by conference season.

We were without a doubt going to finish 3rd last year without any depth if Nance doesn't get hurt. Now we have depth and more experience and development under Shyatt. I'm with Beaver. We should win the conference and make a tourney run this year.

BeaverPoke wrote:Last season we didn't finish top 4, but were one win from tied for 3rd, and 2 wins from 3rd outright.

Considering we lost some games we wouldn't have lost with Nance in there, I don't see how you think we don't improve with Nance there all season.

We should not have lost the AFA or Boise games last season, and would not have lost them with Nance in there.
Hell we were up HUGE on Boise and had a total meltdown.

With Nance, we take 3rd outright last season.

Not to be condescending or anything I just don't see how we don't improve this year.
And this year we actually have depth for the first since Shyatt has been here.

Trey Washington will be a lot better this year. McManamen is coming off the redshirt. Alan Herndon is supposed to be good. We have some bigs that give Nance and DC some rest. We have some guards that are supposed to give Grabau and Adams some rest.

I am drinking the same Koolaid as BP, and agree with him. If Nance comes back to his pre-injury form, this team will be better than last year.

I don't want to jinx the Pokes but I believe they will go 12-1 OOC - the only loss to either Cal or SMU (plus Wyo only has 3 OOC road games), and 14-4 in conference, finishing at 26-5 for the season and at least 2nd place in the MWC. I also believe they get to the championship game in the conference tourney.

And an NCAA bid.

I don't think we can really be very optimistic until we see Larry take the court in a real game and see how he performs. If he is anything less than a legitimate POY candidate than the Pokes will have a hard time staying in the Top 4. If he is everything he can be (MWC POY type of year) than the Pokes can be a title contender.

Overall, SDSU is the clear preseason #1 and but the next 6 teams could be shuffled in almost any way. All have legitimate NCAA aspirations, but only 2 (max) of those 6 will see those fulfilled. There is going to be a lot of disappointment in the MWC this year.

It is a particularly important year for Boise, Wyoming, and Fresno. All three are primed on paper to have their best seasons in over a decade (maybe in the history of the program for Boise, who has never won a NCAA tourney game) and at least one of them (maybe all three) will fall short of the tourney.

UNM and UNLV are included in that mix, but if they fall short they will be right back in the mix the next year. CSU is a little different since Eustachy builds almost exclusively with transfers so if they fall short he will just assemble a new batch of transfers and JC's and make a run at it the next year.

BeaverPoke wrote:

calpoke25 wrote:I don't think WYO has enough proven depth to expect a top 2 MW finish, even with Nance at 100%. Currently I am expecting top 4 finish and to be playing on friday night at the MW tournament, assuming Larry is able to regain his form by conference season.

So no different that last season?

Pokes finished in a 3-way tie for 5th last year.

Also note, the MWC was very weak last year. It hadn't been that weak in a decade. The conference RPI for the previous 5 years was 7, 6, 4, 5, and 1. Last year the MWC was 10th. It won't be that weak again. UNLV, CSU, Boise, and Fresno will all be significantly better as will WYO hopefully. The MWC probably won't be a Top5 RPI conference again as the addition of SJSU is a significant drag on the RPI, but it should bounce back to a be a 3 bid league. Last year the Pokes would not have made the NCAA tournament as an at-large even if Nance had stayed healthy and they had finished 3rd (could have won the MWCT, but that's a different story). This year, I would expect the Top 3 to all make the tourney and the 4/5 teams to be NIT, compared to last year where there were only 2 teams total in the NCAA/NIT.

Looking back, Wyoming has very rarely exceeded preseason expectations.

A quick look at recent history:

13-14: Picked 7th. Finished in a 3-way tie for 5th (5,6,7) so a very slight improvement over preseason prediction.

12-13: Picked 6th. Finished 8th.

11-12: Picked 6th. Finished 6th.

10-11: Picked 8th. Finished 8th.

09-10: Picked 6th. Finished 8th.

08-09: Picked 6th. Finished 6th.

07-08: Picked 6th. Finished 8th.

06-07: Picked 8th. Finished 5th. Coach got fired. Go figure.

05-06: Picked 7th. Finished 7th.

04-05: Picked 8th. Finished T-4th.

03-04: Picked 5th. Finished T-7th.

02-03: Picked 1st. Finished T-3rd.

01-02: Picked 1st. Finished 1st.

Not really sure before that.

I'm expecting big things from the hoops team this year. We've seen steady improvement year over year since Shyatt took over. We've got a hell of a core of players making their last run (Grabau, Nance, Bentz, Hankerson, Sellers, Cooke), only 1 Jr. that we get for another year (Adams), and some underclassmen that should be pretty fun to watch (Washington, Herndon, McManamen, Gorski, Barnes).

Looking over the roster, I notice it breaks down like so:

Seniors: Bentz, Cooke, Grabau, Hankerson, Nance, Sellers
Juniors: Adams
Sophomores: McManamen, Washington
Freshmen: Barnes, Gorski, Herndon, Jones, Lieberman, Williams

That's some serious senior leadership on an otherwise young team. If we're going to make a run, this is the year. This is the year we see Cowboy basketball return to the top!

NowherePoke wrote:I don't think we can really be very optimistic until we see Larry take the court in a real game and see how he performs. If he is anything less than a legitimate POY candidate than the Pokes will have a hard time staying in the Top 4. If he is everything he can be (MWC POY type of year) than the Pokes can be a title contender.

Overall, SDSU is the clear preseason #1 and but the next 6 teams could be shuffled in almost any way. All have legitimate NCAA aspirations, but only 2 (max) of those 6 will see those fulfilled. There is going to be a lot of disappointment in the MWC this year.

It is a particularly important year for Boise, Wyoming, and Fresno. All three are primed on paper to have their best seasons in over a decade (maybe in the history of the program for Boise, who has never won a NCAA tourney game) and at least one of them (maybe all three) will fall short of the tourney.

UNM and UNLV are included in that mix, but if they fall short they will be right back in the mix the next year. CSU is a little different since Eustachy builds almost exclusively with transfers so if they fall short he will just assemble a new batch of transfers and JC's and make a run at it the next year.

^^ This - Spot On ^^

I agree that depth is the problem. If the games were 20 minutes, no problems. But one good big man from the bench, and one good front court player from the bench could make the difference. Who will step up?

I don't think there's a black/white "Nance healthy/Nance not healthy" dichotomy. It will be a process. I expect Nance to be limited for the OOC portion of the schedule as they work him back to full fitness. That will result in a couple of OOC losses that will leave people scratching their heads but it will be worth it in the long term as we get as close to a 100% Nance as we can reasonably expect for someone who tore an ACL in February. I think if that's how the season goes, we get somewhere around 23-24 wins and an at large NCAA berth.

Nance's health is the key to this season. Before I ruptured my Achilles, I saw the team practice/work out over at half acre a few times. Here are my observations.

Nance: I didn't see him do any drills, but he is walking around just fine and looks like he can jump fine. He's definitely thicker than in the past, I actually believe 235 pounds.
Cooke: He was knocking down threes pretty consistently. It looks like his shot has improved like it has each year. I think we'll see him become a more reliable free throw shooter this year which could be huge. He's ripped, but he's still skinny.
Grabau: He was knocking down threes like crazy in the drill I watched. He's going to be similar to last year where he will consistently make the smart play and knock down the open three.
Adams: He is a freak of nature. His three point shot was inconsistent, but he is really good at the pull-up two. His free throw shooting was perfect.
Hankerson: I was playing with him when I ruptured my Achilles. He's still a huge dude with decent quickness. He was knocking down threes alright, but his shot is still a little awkward like last year. I think he'll be very important to the success of this team as a role player/5th starter.
McManamen: He is bigger this year, not quite so skinny. He may push for a big role with the team as he looks more ready physically.

The freshman class
Herndon: He is still skinny, but he isn't a twig like last year. He looks like he'll have enough strength to take advantage of his length and provide some depth.
Barnes: This dude is jacked. He looks more like 6'7" or 6'8" to me, but he is a specimen. I think the fact he is huge makes him look shorter than he is. I didn't get to see him in drills.
Gorski: Decent build and has a good shot. He was getting frustrated in a drill over missing his threes.
Jones: The dude looks 6'6" and well built. He was doing a post drill and was clearly exhausted. It was very cool to see Granberry jump in and push him along as a grad assistant.
Lieberman: He looks like any other 6'1" white dude with curly hair. I didn't get to see him do any drills.
Williams: Didn't see any drills but he is big enough to contribute right away.

DVDA wrote:Nance's health is the key to this season. Before I ruptured my Achilles, I saw the team practice/work out over at half acre a few times. Here are my observations.

Nance: I didn't see him do any drills, but he is walking around just fine and looks like he can jump fine. He's definitely thicker than in the past, I actually believe 235 pounds.
Cooke: He was knocking down threes pretty consistently. It looks like his shot has improved like it has each year. I think we'll see him become a more reliable free throw shooter this year which could be huge. He's ripped, but he's still skinny.
Grabau: He was knocking down threes like crazy in the drill I watched. He's going to be similar to last year where he will consistently make the smart play and knock down the open three.
Adams: He is a freak of nature. His three point shot was inconsistent, but he is really good at the pull-up two. His free throw shooting was perfect.
Hankerson: I was playing with him when I ruptured my Achilles. He's still a huge dude with decent quickness. He was knocking down threes alright, but his shot is still a little awkward like last year. I think he'll be very important to the success of this team as a role player/5th starter.
McManamen: He is bigger this year, not quite so skinny. He may push for a big role with the team as he looks more ready physically.

The freshman class
Herndon: He is still skinny, but he isn't a twig like last year. He looks like he'll have enough strength to take advantage of his length and provide some depth.
Barnes: This dude is jacked. He looks more like 6'7" or 6'8" to me, but he is a specimen. I think the fact he is huge makes him look shorter than he is. I didn't get to see him in drills.
Gorski: Decent build and has a good shot. He was getting frustrated in a drill over missing his threes.
Jones: The dude looks 6'6" and well built. He was doing a post drill and was clearly exhausted. It was very cool to see Granberry jump in and push him along as a grad assistant.
Lieberman: He looks like any other 6'1" white dude with curly hair. I didn't get to see him do any drills.
Williams: Didn't see any drills but he is big enough to contribute right away.

These are the players that will make or break this team as far as getting to the MWC Championship and/or NCAA Tourney. It would also be great if Washington came around this season - I think he has always had the talent/skills, his problems were just mental. We know what the others have done in the past, and if they improved on their game as well, that's gonna push this team to the top. Thanks for the write-up DVDA.

BeaverPoke wrote:

calpoke25 wrote:I don't think WYO has enough proven depth to expect a top 2 MW finish, even with Nance at 100%. Currently I am expecting top 4 finish and to be playing on friday night at the MW tournament, assuming Larry is able to regain his form by conference season.

So no different that last season?

As Nowherepoke already pointed out, we finished tied for 5th last year, so top 4 would be an improvement. But the team is still to me very unproven. Who can we really count on, right now, besides Adams, Cooke, Grabau, Hank, and Larry (if healthy, big if)? We have more talent, but who has proven themselves at this level yet? Who would you trust outside of those 5 on the road at the Pit, or at the T and M or at Vejas, or even in Boise right now? Don't underestimate the value of having veterans like Sobey and Granberry on the roster. Who fills in those type of roles?

Now I hope that you are right and the improved talent steps up and becomes what we want it to. But to expect it before seeing anything yet? Too premature. We were 9-9 last year, even with a healthy Larry we were 8-5. To be top 2 in the MW will require 4 losses or less. Where does that come from?

The team has the potential to be top 2, if everything falls into place, but that's a pretty big IF right now. I also agree with the poster that we will probably drop an OOC game or two most people think we shouldn't because I do think it will take Larry some time to work his way back during the OOC portion of the schedule with a lot of unproven talent.

calpoke25 wrote:

BeaverPoke wrote:

calpoke25 wrote:I don't think WYO has enough proven depth to expect a top 2 MW finish, even with Nance at 100%. Currently I am expecting top 4 finish and to be playing on friday night at the MW tournament, assuming Larry is able to regain his form by conference season.

So no different that last season?

As Nowherepoke already pointed out, we finished tied for 5th last year, so top 4 would be an improvement.

Yep like I said in the very next post.

And as for the senior leadership thing, we have Larry Nance who is the biggest leader on the team, Grabau, Hankerson, and Cooke.

4 seniors compared to the 2, and 1 who was only in the program for 1 season, and the other who was in the program for 2 seasons. That's a combined 3 years in the program, and only 1 prior to last year.

Larry Nance has 3 by himself. As does Grabau. Cooke has 2. Hankerson has 1.
Adams who is a junior will be a 3rd year starter.

We have leadership, and that is not an issue, it is going to be a more senior lead team than in the last 5 years, if not 10 years.