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307bball
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ragtimejoe1 wrote: Wed Jun 07, 2023 7:15 am
307bball wrote: Wed Jun 07, 2023 5:08 am

Is a 6+ win conference season a reason to celebrate then?
It would be the second in a decade and likely Craig Bohl's ceiling. Celebrate? Meh, that's up to the individual.

I don't think this year's squad is good enough to get to 6+ conference wins unless the MWC is really terrible. I predict the MWC will be typical and we dont get 6+ wins. If the MWC is typical and we get 6+ wins then I'm wrong and the team is better than i expected.

You're trying to debate about how we should feel if it does happen. I'm sure everyone will have their own opinion on that but 6 wins would mean 7-5 or 8-4 most likely.
That win total (7 or 8), is definitely above the threshold that Wyoming coaches need for job security. The posters in this board and the more involved fans would like more obviously. I'm mostly curious about your assertion that Wyoming's win total in conference is, in the main, dependant upon how strong the rest of the conference is. I get that from a pure prediction standpoint or if I'm doing some serious college football gambling.... But I'm not doing that. I'm a fan. To me, 6+ conference wins is exciting and gives us an opportunity to play in a title game. I mean, we aren't talking about an FCS to SEC swing in conference strength.

I would understand worrying about conference strength if we were gunning for playoff consideration I guess... It just feels like a way to downgrade a possible good season before it gets off the ground. If Bohl gets this years squad to 6 mwc wins, I would want more but I'm definitely giving kudos to Bohl and the team instead of downgrading the accomplishment.
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307bball wrote: Wed Jun 07, 2023 7:41 am
ragtimejoe1 wrote: Wed Jun 07, 2023 7:15 am

It would be the second in a decade and likely Craig Bohl's ceiling. Celebrate? Meh, that's up to the individual.

I don't think this year's squad is good enough to get to 6+ conference wins unless the MWC is really terrible. I predict the MWC will be typical and we dont get 6+ wins. If the MWC is typical and we get 6+ wins then I'm wrong and the team is better than i expected.

You're trying to debate about how we should feel if it does happen. I'm sure everyone will have their own opinion on that but 6 wins would mean 7-5 or 8-4 most likely.
That win total (7 or 8), is definitely above the threshold that Wyoming coaches need for job security. The posters in this board and the more involved fans would like more obviously. I'm mostly curious about your assertion that Wyoming's win total in conference is, in the main, dependant upon how strong the rest of the conference is. I get that from a pure prediction standpoint or if I'm doing some serious college football gambling.... But I'm not doing that. I'm a fan. To me, 6+ conference wins is exciting and gives us an opportunity to play in a title game. I mean, we aren't talking about an FCS to SEC swing in conference strength.

I would understand worrying about conference strength if we were gunning for playoff consideration I guess... It just feels like a way to downgrade a possible good season before it gets off the ground. If Bohl gets this years squad to 6 mwc wins, I would want more but I'm definitely giving kudos to Bohl and the team instead of downgrading the accomplishment.
I am speaking from a pure predictive standpoint. I dint think this year's squad is good enough to run roughshod over the MWC so the conference record will depend on how good or bad the other teams are.

If 6 + conference wins happen, I'm certain many fans will feel great about it.
WYO1016 wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:10 am I'm starting to think that Burman has been laying the pipe to ragtimejoe1's wife
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ragtimejoe1 wrote: Wed Jun 07, 2023 8:33 am
307bball wrote: Wed Jun 07, 2023 7:41 am

That win total (7 or 8), is definitely above the threshold that Wyoming coaches need for job security. The posters in this board and the more involved fans would like more obviously. I'm mostly curious about your assertion that Wyoming's win total in conference is, in the main, dependant upon how strong the rest of the conference is. I get that from a pure prediction standpoint or if I'm doing some serious college football gambling.... But I'm not doing that. I'm a fan. To me, 6+ conference wins is exciting and gives us an opportunity to play in a title game. I mean, we aren't talking about an FCS to SEC swing in conference strength.

I would understand worrying about conference strength if we were gunning for playoff consideration I guess... It just feels like a way to downgrade a possible good season before it gets off the ground. If Bohl gets this years squad to 6 mwc wins, I would want more but I'm definitely giving kudos to Bohl and the team instead of downgrading the accomplishment.
I am speaking from a pure predictive standpoint. I dint think this year's squad is good enough to run roughshod over the MWC so the conference record will depend on how good or bad the other teams are.

If 6 + conference wins happen, I'm certain many fans will feel great about it.
Ah...I see
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laxwyo
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OrediggerPoke wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:26 pm
307bball wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 10:52 am

The Mountain Division representative in the conference championship game has had 6 wins two times...once in 2016 and once in 2021. Otherwise it takes 7 or 8 conference wins to appear in the title game, so I agree that would be the most probable finish in the standings (in our division)....but i'm asking how to rate the job done by Bohl relative to his other 6 win conference season.

If we get to 6 wins does that mean that BSU and AFA are down? or that the lower half is really down? What does it mean that the conference is worse? In 2016 (the other 6 win conference season), Wyoming, BSU and UNM all had 6 wins...that seems like a down year as well...although...it's all relative to a 10+ year run of a pretty mediocre MWC.
There are no divisions for the upcoming season. Wyoming’s success or lack thereof doesn’t really necessarily mean anything for AF or BSU.
Air Force in 15' was 6-2

Also, two 5-3 team made championship games from the other division. The Mountain generally had less parity and basically comes down to beating Boise so that you have the tie breaker in the likely event you dropped one game. No divisions should make it easier for 2 Mtn teams to reach championship. 19' top two teams were Mtn teams and Hawaii was in championship at 5-3. 18' Utah St was 7-1 along with Fresno. 14' was the worst year. 5-3 Fresno made championship while 6-2 CSU and Utah St watched. At no point has West division ever had two of the top teams. Maybe 21' when Utah St, AF were 6-2 and Fresno watched because SDSU was 7-1. We'll call that a wash with 18'. so 2 out of 9 years there were divisions would have had 2 Mtn teams in championship. I think no divisions is better for mountain teams.

Some other nuggets I just dug up. 9 years of division play (20' no divisions) only 3 teams from West beat BSU to end up West Champions. 2 were Fresno (1 being last game of season after BSU had locked up spot and Boise beat them next week for championship) and 1 was SDSU in 21. SDSU made championship twice without playing Boise. Of the 4 non Boise Mtn divisions, Utah St was division winner twice each time losing to Boise. Only Wyoming and AF have beat AF and won division. Long story short, you can lose to Boise from West division and make championship but only 21' and 13' had the Mtn team done it. Utah St. almost did it in 18' when they were really good but Boise had the tie breaker head to head. Non divisional play appears to be good for Mtn Teams if historical trend continues. Every few years, there'll be two Mtn teams in championship. The crucial bit would be going 7-1 with a loss to Boise would likely get you in the championship game as Boise traditionally would need 6-2 in order for you to hop them.
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307bball wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:01 pm
OrediggerPoke wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:26 pm

There are no divisions for the upcoming season. Wyoming’s success or lack thereof doesn’t really necessarily mean anything for AF or BSU.
I wasn't clear ....i'm looking backwards at when the MWC did have divisions... in general, 6 wins has gotten an MWC team a tie for second or so, in the division format, with an outside shot at playing in the title game. Now with no divisions...the odds of playing for a chip at 6 conference wins is pretty much nonexistent I would think. I'm mostly asking about Ragtime's claim that if Wyoming gets to 6 conference victories, that would mean the MWC is weak. My sense is that the conference as it is constituted is pretty stable in overall strength of programs. The reason I picked BSU and AFA is because they have been consistently our strongest divisional rivals. If they are not as strong it is easier to get to six or more wins....I don't think that if the lower end gets even worse it helps us all that much....we typically finish above that threshold already.
I have another post breaking it down more. But looking back 7-1 AF would have been in championship in 19', and CSU/Utah St 6-2 would have been in Championship in 14' instead of 5-3 FSU. The other 6-2 teams in championship games would remain unchanged. Non division is net win for Mtn teams.

Another Trend is the 2nd Place Mtn team is usually only 1 more loss than Division winner with a few ties. West division usually had 2 loss separation between division winner and 2nd place. the two 5-3 years west winners were ties (makes sense)

A good wyoming team can lose to Boise and make championship if you take care of the rest of the conference. Since we've only beaten them once, I'd say our odds are better at conference championship game now than with divisions. See two 7-1 mtn teams being left out.
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Where is the App State game?
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Question is, Lax, how does CB get to 6 or 7 wins without JA?

He got to 5 last year and that's the closest he ever been without JA. CB conference record is mediocre at best post JA. It's more likely that we start 1-8 or 2-6 than win 7 conference games, imo.

Cheyenne, App State is in Laramie.
WYO1016 wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:10 am I'm starting to think that Burman has been laying the pipe to ragtimejoe1's wife
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ragtimejoe1 wrote: Sat Jun 10, 2023 9:58 pm Question is, Lax, how does CB get to 6 or 7 wins without JA?
I'll take a stab at it...Wyo gets to 6 or 7 wins in a very similar fashion to how they did it with JA...just with a better defense and a worse offense. Both the SDSU and BSU wins that year were thisclose to being losses.... 6 or 7 conference wins next year will mean that in those 2 to 3 tight games...we come out on top. Now...is it going to happen? I wouldn't bet the farm.
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307bball wrote: Sun Jun 11, 2023 5:12 pm
ragtimejoe1 wrote: Sat Jun 10, 2023 9:58 pm Question is, Lax, how does CB get to 6 or 7 wins without JA?
I'll take a stab at it...Wyo gets to 6 or 7 wins in a very similar fashion to how they did it with JA...just with a better defense and a worse offense. Both the SDSU and BSU wins that year were thisclose to being losses.... 6 or 7 conference wins next year will mean that in those 2 to 3 tight games...we come out on top. Now...is it going to happen? I wouldn't bet the farm.
This makes sense to me. I would look for an improved passing game next year with two quality tight ends and transfer WRs. I hope for 50 more passing yards a game.
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marcuswyo wrote: Sun Jun 11, 2023 6:41 pm
307bball wrote: Sun Jun 11, 2023 5:12 pm

I'll take a stab at it...Wyo gets to 6 or 7 wins in a very similar fashion to how they did it with JA...just with a better defense and a worse offense. Both the SDSU and BSU wins that year were thisclose to being losses.... 6 or 7 conference wins next year will mean that in those 2 to 3 tight games...we come out on top. Now...is it going to happen? I wouldn't bet the farm.
This makes sense to me. I would look for an improved passing game next year with two quality tight ends and transfer WRs. I hope for 50 more passing yards a game.
We did not have a great D in 16'. We got 5 wins last year with a really really young team and a new QB. It's not crazy to expect 6 wins. Something really important is that a loss to Boise doesn't doom your chances at the championship which should result in the players being more into the games that follow. They're humans and it has to effect your play knowing that a championship is not attainable.
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Have a good summer I'll check back in once the 7-5 season starts...hope I'm wrong!!! I'll only make 3 games 2 home 1 at UNLV this year!
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stymeman wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2023 5:28 pm hope I'm wrong!!!
Oh, you probably will be but not in the good way.
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I'm really, really confused about those who claim the MWC has been soooo weak during Bohl's tenure.

The MWC since 2016:

Boise State: 65-22 (4 Bowls)

San Diego State: 61-27 (6 Bowls)

Air Force: 54-28 (4 Bowls)

Fresno State: 50-35 (4 Bowls)

Wyoming: 46-38 (5 Bowls)

Utah State: 45-39 (5 Bowls)

Nevada: 40-44 (4 Bowls)

Hawai'i: 42-48 (4 Bowls)

San Jose State: 31-50 (2 Bowls)

Colorado State: 28-50 (2 Bowls)

UNLV: 24-54

New Mexico: 24-56 (1 Bowl)

The top half of the conference all has winning records, and 4 out of the remaining 6 still have multiple bowl appearances. Only one team in the entire conference has not made a bowl within the last 7 years. And let's not pretend that the conference hasn't scheduled some quality OoC opponents or had some key P5 matchups. The bottom couple of teams really drag the conference's averages down, but it's a solid conference and with the AAC losing its top 3 teams, we're in a prime position to take over the top G5 spot.

I'm one of Bohl's biggest critics, but let's not be too disingenuous.

Anyway...

I wouldn't rule out an upset of TTU, but I'm not counting on it. PSU should be a win, but they're not going to just lie down like dogs and I think some people are overlooking them a bit. Texas can almost automatically be considered a loss, and I really don't trust us against App State. 0-4 is a distant possibility; 1-3 is actually probably realistic.

Conference play depends on too many factors. How beat up is the team after a pretty brutal OoC schedule? Not just physically, but mentally? We saw this a bit last year, where by the time we dove a couple games into conference play the team was just battered.

We get a reprieve with UNM, but then we have Fresno State (sure, no Haener or Mims...but Fife is capable and will be more developed, Tedford is a good coach, and they still have a ton of talent). Then we have AFA, which is always a dogfight (no pun intended). Then Boise State, who looks to have reloaded decently and until they prove otherwise, is still #1 or #2 in the conference.

Then we have a run of 4 very beatable conference opponents...but that's if we don't drop our usual headscratcher to an opponent we outmatch on paper in every way. It's a Bohl specialty.

All things considered, 7-5 would be considered a massive success. 6-6 would be the betting man's choice. 5-7 is a very real possibility. And we're certainly not sniffing the 'ship.

Obviously even if we go 5-7 (or even worse) Bohl remains (unless he decides to retire)...unless Burman somehow has a home run hire waiting in the wings that he's willing to risk his own job for.
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DamThatRiver22 wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 12:12 pm I'm really, really confused about those who claim the MWC has been soooo weak during Bohl's tenure.

The MWC since 2016:

Boise State: 65-22 (4 Bowls)

San Diego State: 61-27 (6 Bowls)

Air Force: 54-28 (4 Bowls)

Fresno State: 50-35 (4 Bowls)

Wyoming: 46-38 (5 Bowls)

Utah State: 45-39 (5 Bowls)

Nevada: 40-44 (4 Bowls)

Hawai'i: 42-48 (4 Bowls)

San Jose State: 31-50 (2 Bowls)

Colorado State: 28-50 (2 Bowls)

UNLV: 24-54

New Mexico: 24-56 (1 Bowl)

The top half of the conference all has winning records, and 4 out of the remaining 6 still have multiple bowl appearances. Only one team in the entire conference has not made a bowl within the last 7 years. And let's not pretend that the conference hasn't scheduled some quality OoC opponents or had some key P5 matchups. The bottom couple of teams really drag the conference's averages down, but it's a solid conference and with the AAC losing its top 3 teams, we're in a prime position to take over the top G5 spot.

I'm one of Bohl's biggest critics, but let's not be too disingenuous.

Anyway...

I wouldn't rule out an upset of TTU, but I'm not counting on it. PSU should be a win, but they're not going to just lie down like dogs and I think some people are overlooking them a bit. Texas can almost automatically be considered a loss, and I really don't trust us against App State. 0-4 is a distant possibility; 1-3 is actually probably realistic.

Conference play depends on too many factors. How beat up is the team after a pretty brutal OoC schedule? Not just physically, but mentally? We saw this a bit last year, where by the time we dove a couple games into conference play the team was just battered.

We get a reprieve with UNM, but then we have Fresno State (sure, no Haener or Mims...but Fife is capable and will be more developed, Tedford is a good coach, and they still have a ton of talent). Then we have AFA, which is always a dogfight (no pun intended). Then Boise State, who looks to have reloaded decently and until they prove otherwise, is still #1 or #2 in the conference.

Then we have a run of 4 very beatable conference opponents...but that's if we don't drop our usual headscratcher to an opponent we outmatch on paper in every way. It's a Bohl specialty.

All things considered, 7-5 would be considered a massive success. 6-6 would be the betting man's choice. 5-7 is a very real possibility. And we're certainly not sniffing the 'ship.

Obviously even if we go 5-7 (or even worse) Bohl remains (unless he decides to retire)...unless Burman somehow has a home run hire waiting in the wings that he's willing to risk his own job for.
I'll let ragtime pontificate on conference strength ....

As far as the rest..yeah I agree that .500 overall is where I would put the over/under....that would probably mean a 5-3 or 4-4 conference record. Looking at our road vs home games in conference....If we beat Fresno, maybe we don't lose at home? Who do we beat on the road?...I don't think we can win on the blue turf but the other road games seem at least doable. Best case scenario in conference ... 6-2 with losses to BSU and Fresno...but that is probably overly optimistic.
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Bowls mean absolutely nothing anymore. Ever since ESPN bought all of them up to use as their sole source of programing for the last 2 weeks in December each year, giving 0.500 teams eligibility and sometimes needing 5-7 teams to fill all of the slots, a bowl appearance just doesn't mean what it once did.

As far as the Cowboys OOC schedule this year- I think its one of the most intriguing OOC slates that the Cowboys have had in a while (2020 was going to be incredible but then COVID). TT and App St in Laramie is tremendous. I always hold my breath of the FBS game because there have been too many near stinkers in Laramie under Bohl for my liking.

DamThatRiver22 wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 12:12 pm I'm really, really confused about those who claim the MWC has been soooo weak during Bohl's tenure.

The MWC since 2016:

Boise State: 65-22 (4 Bowls)

San Diego State: 61-27 (6 Bowls)

Air Force: 54-28 (4 Bowls)

Fresno State: 50-35 (4 Bowls)

Wyoming: 46-38 (5 Bowls)

Utah State: 45-39 (5 Bowls)

Nevada: 40-44 (4 Bowls)

Hawai'i: 42-48 (4 Bowls)

San Jose State: 31-50 (2 Bowls)

Colorado State: 28-50 (2 Bowls)

UNLV: 24-54

New Mexico: 24-56 (1 Bowl)

The top half of the conference all has winning records, and 4 out of the remaining 6 still have multiple bowl appearances. Only one team in the entire conference has not made a bowl within the last 7 years. And let's not pretend that the conference hasn't scheduled some quality OoC opponents or had some key P5 matchups. The bottom couple of teams really drag the conference's averages down, but it's a solid conference and with the AAC losing its top 3 teams, we're in a prime position to take over the top G5 spot.

I'm one of Bohl's biggest critics, but let's not be too disingenuous.

Anyway...

I wouldn't rule out an upset of TTU, but I'm not counting on it. PSU should be a win, but they're not going to just lie down like dogs and I think some people are overlooking them a bit. Texas can almost automatically be considered a loss, and I really don't trust us against App State. 0-4 is a distant possibility; 1-3 is actually probably realistic.

Conference play depends on too many factors. How beat up is the team after a pretty brutal OoC schedule? Not just physically, but mentally? We saw this a bit last year, where by the time we dove a couple games into conference play the team was just battered.

We get a reprieve with UNM, but then we have Fresno State (sure, no Haener or Mims...but Fife is capable and will be more developed, Tedford is a good coach, and they still have a ton of talent). Then we have AFA, which is always a dogfight (no pun intended). Then Boise State, who looks to have reloaded decently and until they prove otherwise, is still #1 or #2 in the conference.

Then we have a run of 4 very beatable conference opponents...but that's if we don't drop our usual headscratcher to an opponent we outmatch on paper in every way. It's a Bohl specialty.

All things considered, 7-5 would be considered a massive success. 6-6 would be the betting man's choice. 5-7 is a very real possibility. And we're certainly not sniffing the 'ship.

Obviously even if we go 5-7 (or even worse) Bohl remains (unless he decides to retire)...unless Burman somehow has a home run hire waiting in the wings that he's willing to risk his own job for.
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