ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:16 am
So NIL argument only works 1 way?
I'm not sure what you mean by "only works one way". The way it works is, the more NIL $$ available ... the better your chances of getting top talent, it's not rocket science.
ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:16 am
We've dominated certain teams in conference so our NIL must far exceed theirs, right? We must have significant structural advantages to all the teams we've mostly beaten, right? What are they? How much exactly?
This is a better question. We all understand that if we played Alabama every year for the last 10....we would be very likely to lose all of them. We understand that a big part of that is the fact that they have far more resources tied up in their football program than we do. I'm using the word resources intentionally because it's not limited to just $$.
First of all...what do we mean by "teams we've mostly beaten", or "We've dominated certain teams in conference"? For reference, since 2005, Wyoming has gone 20-12 against the combo of UNLV and CSU. That is winning just below 2 games out of every three. That is the most dominant we have been over that stretch against anybody in the conference. We are definitely better than them over that stretch but it seems short of dominance.
So Why has Wyoming been consistently better than CSU and UNLV over that stretch? We know it can't be NIL related since most of that "dominance" (not really dominating but I'll set that aside) took place before the NIL era. It must mean that we have far more resources than say CSU or UNLV right? I don't thank that is accurate...My sense is that we are similarly resourced in comparison to those two schools. My theory is that the difference when analyzing those two vs Wyoming...you are seeing mostly the effect of a better ran program without the resource differential clouding out everything else. I would argue that is largely why you see that we are only 1-15 against BSU over that same stretch....but times are changing. In the new transfer and NIL world (hereafter referred to as T&NIL), BSU looks to be separating from the rest of the MWC and to a lessor extent, SDSU, Fresno and possibly UNLV. So, in the future, with BSU already running a better program is going to also accrue to themselves further advantage because they are probably going to be the top T&NIL destination in the MWC. Will Wyoming ever be a top T&NIL program in conference? if the answer is no, and that matters...it will be very hard to be a top MWC program merely by being a "better run program"...that is what Bohl did and nobody is overjoyed by that.
Again...dominating UNLV and CSU is not the only bar you and I want to clear...if you want 4 or 5 championships since 2000 you have to be on the level of BSU, SDSU, and Fresno at a minimum.
ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:16 am
We should be able to rank the conference according to these external factors.
You are completely correct. I don't even think it would be that hard if it were your economics research project. I'm using the perceived attractiveness of different programs for conference expansion as a sort of proxy for this ranking. Probably not perfect....but I'm not going to do the research.
ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:16 am
Of course if any coach/ad comes in and wins or would show that it can be done at WYO.
ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 6:16 am
How many teams need to leave the mwc before you'd consider our "disadvantages neutralized"? We ready lack top 25 teams. How low does our top ranked teams need to be before little ole WYO can compete?
I don't really look at it that way...but removing BSU, Fresno, and SDSU puts us into a conference we have been at greater parity levels with since '05....I don't like the idea of just doing that, I would rather beat them on the gridiron.
Ragtime...you don't have to have a "little ole Wyo" mindset, as you put it, to notice the things I'm pointing out and thinking about. This is not as binary as you are making it. Everyone loves the idea of David overcoming Goliath...it's what we all want. I want that. But the reason we notice it when it happens is because it's so rare. I wish college football didn't have David and Goliath type disparity's but it does.... I don't know the exact impacts of all of this resource inequity but it sure as heck ain't zero....and it's not getting better it's getting worse. It even looks to create classes of schools within conferences. That is all ... that seems self evident. I too want a better coach and AD. It will definitely matter. I just don't think that excellence at that position with no other changes gets us 4 or 5 conference championships since 2000. I think it would have been better...we would have won more games and that would have been great. I'm all for that. I'm trying to have a conversation w/you about what it would look like if Wyoming were to go on a 4 year stretch where we win 35 or more games again like we havn't done for a very long time and seems increasingly unlikely.