National Media is writing us off

[WYCowboy]

We are getting no respect (even after beating Tennessee in Knoxville on their Homecoming) this last year. Here is the story:

http://www.trib.com/articles/2009/06/07 ... 7dafe0.txt



By AUSTIN WARD
Star-Tribune staff writer

Saturday, June 6, 2009 2:00 AM MDT

The schedule looks great in Laramie.

Which means Wyoming shouldn't have any trouble drawing fans for home games in the fall.

The slate doesn't appear quite so attractive nationally.

Which is a big reason the preseason forecasters aren't calling for those fans to have much celebrate after them.

A few preseason magazines are already on the shelves predicting last-place conference finishes for the Cowboys, and the outlook won't get much better when the most accurate publication over the last 10 years officially comes out early next week -- Phil Steele's College Football Preview has them eighth.

And though there seems to be general agreement UW will be better in coach Dave Christensen's first year, there's also a consensus on what could keep him from playing in the postseason.

"Well, the main thing is the schedule," Steele said. "When I look at Wyoming, I see a veteran squad with [17] returning starters, and you'd figure they would have a new attitude with Dave Christensen. They'll get better quarterback play, which means their defense is going to be pretty good.

"The main reason I have them down there at No. 8 is the schedule, which I rate at No. 44 in the country this year. You look at their home games, it's a very attractive home slate. They play TCU, they play Texas, they play BYU -- those are great opponents to bring home and get the fanbase going. Those are three powerhouse teams that are all going to be in the top 20. But they're probably unwinnable games at home."

From the outside, it doesn't appear to get any easier on the road.

The Cowboys follow the historic meeting with the Longhorns with another Big 12 program, traveling to Colorado the next week.

They have to visit their personal House of Horrors for a showdown with Utah, the reigning conference and Sugar Bowl champs.

And UW hasn't had much more success at San Diego State either, even though the Aztecs haven't had a winning season this decade.

Of course the wildcard could be Christensen, who drew rave reviews from the Cowboys during spring practice and could agitate the league right away if his spread offense clicks with a defense that should be solid again.

"There is always a learning curve with a new head coach in his first year," Steele said. "He has to learn his players' strengths and weaknesses, the players have to learn new systems, both offense and defense. But if you look at just the talent on hand, I mean Wyoming has eight starters back from a defense that allowed just 330 yards per game. The main reason they allowed 28 points per game last year was they were minus-22 in turnovers -- the offense put them in some horrible positions and even gave the other team's offense some points. Wyoming is not going to be minus-22 in turnovers [again].

"Then they had as bad of quarterbacking play as you can possibly have during the course of the season, and that will not happen a second straight year no matter who wins the quarterbacking job. So, looking at Wyoming's returning starters, the thing about a new head coach, there's always the first-year coaches who come in and hit the home run because they have good success early on. Then all of a sudden, the players buy into the program and they have a much better year than expected."

That can make even the best handicapper look foolish in a hurry, and obviously nobody is writing off the Cowboys completely before they've even played a down.

Athlon Sports picked UW to finish last in the conference, but also tabbed four Cowboys to its all-league squads -- three more than eighth-place San Diego State.

Steele is only projecting four wins for Christensen in his debut season, but even considering the schedule he set the ceiling at seven -- more than enough to get UW back in a bowl.

And in reality, the Cowboys are a bit of an unknown commodity at this point.

The only thing certain about them is the schedule.

"They'll probably be an underdog in every one of their road games as well, so basically it's the schedule that has them down there in the Mountain West," Steele said. "I've got them with a four-win season probably, but not every single game is like playing Texas.

"There are enough winnable games on the schedule with the new attitude where they could pull out a six-win season."

Maybe some good news is on the way after all.

Contact sports reporter Austin Ward at (307) 266-0634 or [email protected].

STEELE FORECAST

Phil Steele, the publisher of the most accurate preseason college football magazine over the last 10 years and the popular Web site PhilSteele.com, breaks down Wyoming's 2009 schedule.

Date Opponent Pick He Said It

Sept. 5 Weber State UW "Solid favorite to start the year."

Sept. 12 Texas Texas "I don't think Wyoming is going to beat Texas."

Sept. 19 at Colorado Colorado "Another underdog here."

Sept. 26 UNLV UW "Very capable of winning that."

Oct. 3 at Florida Atlantic FAU "That's going to be a tough trip."

Oct. 10 New Mexico UW "Wyoming will definitely be favored there."

Oct. 17 at Air Force AFA "I've them as an underdog down there."

Oct. 31 at Utah Utah "Unwinnable because it's on the road."

Nov. 7 BYU BYU "I think BYU actually can get to the title game this year."

Nov. 14 at San Diego State SDSU "[The Aztecs] are going to be a much-improved team."

Nov. 21 TCU TCU "Very good shot at running the table as well."

Nov. 27 at Colorado State Even "I think they've got a shot at pulling out a win there."

[OrediggerPoke]

With the question marks on this team and last year's record (including multiple conference blowouts), we don't deserve much respect. However, we should be ranked ahead of SDSU at this point.

Look at it from an objective perspective...how could we possibly be ranked ahead of TCU, BYU, Utah, CSU, Air Force??

If I ranked them it would be: 1) TCU , 2) BYU , 3) Utah , 4) CSU , 5) Air Force , 6) UNLV , 7) Wyoming , 8) New Mexico , 9) SDSU

But more aptly:
Tier 1 :TCU, BYU, Utah
Tier 2: CSU, Air Force
Tier 3: UNLV, Wyoming, New Mexico, SDSU (call this the new coaching staff tier)

[WYCowboy]

There's a couple or three ways to look at our prospects for this year.

1. New coaching staff, new system, and the team needing more time and personnel to run it effectively.

2. Our defense was good (ranked 38th in total defense nationally last year) even with the turnovers and an offense that wasn't good. If the new coaching improves the offense and the turnovers just a little, we might be a little better than last year. Christensen was rated the top offensive mind in college football.

3. We are playing a tougher schedule (Texas, CU, & the Florida team). Most of our wins last year were OOC. We need to get in conference wins to equal last years record.

Who knows what the outcome will be.

[The Virginian]

The key to next season is how well Coach Christensen and his staff are able to adapt their system to the personnel on hand, rather than have the players fully adapt to their system. DC and Co. can implement more and more of their system as they recruit players for their system. In the meantime they'll have to play to their strengths.

With fewer turnovers, better quarterback play and receivers who'll catch the damn ball, I think the Pokes are good for at least a couple more wins. I have a lot of confidence in the defense and if the offense doesn't put them in impossible situations things should be much better.

I see wins versus Weber State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Colorado State. I think the Pokes have a chance to beat Colorado and Florida Atlantic, if they play turnover-free ball and have their act together between QB and receivers.

I'm calling the home game versus the Coogs an upset special. Given the history and emotion behind this game, it's either a blowout by BYU or the Pokes pull the upset.

Games vs. Texas, Utah, and TCU are almost assured losses.

Bottom line?
2-10 - total disaster;
4-8 - not great, but not surprising;
6-6 - things are looking up;
7-5 - and bowl eligible; now we're talking;
8 plus - pipe dreams

[Adv8RU12]

This low preseason expectation has to be good for DC. If he does better, then he is a hero, if not,
well, hell, it wasn't expected. Using the method of most prognosticators, I figure 6-6 will be the
best it will get.

[evilpoke]

The problem is the schedule.
Sept. 5 Weber State - WIN
Sept. 12 Texas - LOSS
Sept. 19 at Colorado - Probable loss
Sept. 26 UNLV - win?
Oct. 3 at Florida Atlantic - Probable Loss
Oct. 10 New Mexico - win?
Oct. 17 at Air Force - Probable Loss
Oct. 31 at Utah - LOSS
Nov. 7 BYU - LOSS
Nov. 14 at San Diego State - Toss-up
Nov. 21 TCU - LOSS
Nov. 27 at Colorado State - Toss-up

That's:
One definite wins
Two maybe wins
Two toss ups
Three probable losses
Four Losses

Even if Wyo gets the maybes and splits the toss ups, that's 4-8, folks...

The big question is the offense, because NO ONE has any idea how it's going to look next year. We keep thinking back to the last two years, where the offense was offensive -

I think Wyoming can win those probable losses and toss ups IF the offense can put up 24-28 points a game. The defense should be that good. I just have no idea if they can right now.

[Snowman_55]

The problem is the schedule.
Sept. 5 Weber State - WIN
Sept. 12 Texas - LOSS
Sept. 19 at Colorado - Probable loss
Sept. 26 UNLV - win?
Oct. 3 at Florida Atlantic - Probable Loss
Oct. 10 New Mexico - win?
Oct. 17 at Air Force - Probable Loss
Oct. 31 at Utah - LOSS
Nov. 7 BYU - LOSS
Nov. 14 at San Diego State - Toss-up
Nov. 21 TCU - LOSS
Nov. 27 at Colorado State - Toss-up

That's:
One definite wins
Two maybe wins
Two toss ups
Three probable losses
Four Losses

Even if Wyo gets the maybes and splits the toss ups, that's 4-8, folks...

The big question is the offense, because NO ONE has any idea how it's going to look next year. We keep thinking back to the last two years, where the offense was offensive -

I think Wyoming can win those probable losses and toss ups IF the offense can put up 24-28 points a game. The defense should be that good. I just have no idea if they can right now.

Here is what I know, we have a new coach, new style of offense, and a new attitude within the program. Which means there will certainly be some bumps in the road, and some WTF moments, but an offense that is designed to score points vs. being ball control gives me hope. I will put us at 7 wins, I am not going to pick game by game yet because I think we might have a couple early season brain farts, but also will steal a game we shouldn't....wouldn't suprise me to see us beat either Utah or BYU.