laxwyo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 5:13 pm
seattlecowboy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 6:24 pm
The Sports Books don’t make spreads based on respect or no respect or who has certain feelings about whatever.
They have reasons they make a spread the way they make it. It also doesn’t have anything to do with trying to get half the money on one side and half the money on the other side. That’s the biggest myth in Sports wagering there is.
With that said … based on the fact this line came out this big and so much money already being poured in on Wyoming at a lot of different books I have looked at… tells me the Sportsbooks are siding with AFA in this one and don’t care how much money comes in on Wyoming, they aren’t moving the line.
If you think this looks like an easy point spread cover by Wyoming, you should ask yourself a couple of questions.
How have you done long term wagering on sports? Do you usually beat the sports book and you are up on them? What makes you think the Sports book is going to just give away money for free on this game knowing a lot of people will see that big of a line on this game and want to jump all over Wyoming?
Probably best if you lay off this game wagering wise and hope the pokes can pull it out. Would suck to have a lot of money on Wyoming and they get beat by double digits and you lose as a Wyoming fan and lose your money also.
Just giving you a heads up. Hopefully Wyoming wins but honestly when I see surprising lines like this, they usually end up going the Sports Books way in “most” cases. Very high percentage of them.
I just cashed Buffs at Over 3.5 wins +130 after 6 games into the season. I'd say they're not perfect.
I never said they were perfect… not sure where anyone is getting that from my post.
I have been doing this for a longtime and I have a LARGE group of people who pay me for picks and info each week/month.
I never once said the sports books are perfect. I was just giving out some knowledge on something I know very very much about and have lots of statistics on, going back many many years.
Wyoming can cover and can win the game. Sports Books don’t take “sides” on every game or spread they put out either. They have specific ones they are more apt to take a “side” on.
This Wyoming/AFA game appears to be one of those based on the size of the line and how much money is coming in on Wyoming so far. That doesn’t mean the Sports Books win all those either. I am just telling you statistically they win a very very high percentage of these types. Over 75% of them. So if you want to take a wager where you have roughly a 25% chance or less of winning go for it.
I would just say maybe go a little bit lighter on it or if you guys like Wyoming so much maybe put them in a teaser and get a few extra points.
Like was stated above … AFA is in a perfect spot this week. They had a bye last week and Wyoming had to play a tough game.
So far this year when Wyoming has had to play a “tougher” opponent, the following week they haven’t looked that great.
They played Texas Tech and won then came back the next week and beat a very horrible Portland St team at home by only 14 points. Oregon beat them by 74 points.
Then Wyoming goes down to Texas and plays a great game overall by Wyomings standards and then comes back home again the following week and has to squeak out a win over a decent App St. team, but an App St. team that isn’t anything special. (Horrible defense app st. Has this year) If Wyoming would have had to play at App St that week, they lose that game by at least a TD or more probably.
Wyoming then plays at home again against UNM who is horrible and Wyoming has some trouble against them but finally pulls it out.
Then WYO comes back to play Fresno St now, another tough game but Wyoming is more rested after playing a weaker opponent the week before and gets them at home.
Now for the first time this year Wyoming is going on the road to play another tough team after a tough game. Had any of those other games that followed up the “tough” games been on the road the following week, Wyoming probably loses them, possibly even to Portland St the way they played that game.
Wyoming hasn’t looked that great yet this year in follow up games after having had to play a tough game the week prior. They have been lucky the games have all been at home and been against lesser opponents in most cases so far.
They don’t get that this week or this time around. They played a tough team in a tough game and now have to play another tough opponent but on the road this time. Back to back tough opponents for the first time this year.
Also we have to remember that when Wyoming played Texas, the longhorns had just beat Alabama in a huge win for them the week before and were probably flat for at least half of the game or more against us. If we have to play them after they beat a more mediocre opponent we probably lose by a lot more than we did that game.
Wyoming +10.5 or +11 isn’t as easy of a wager as most on here think it is. I hope you are all right and they cover easy and win the game but if I take my homer glasses off and look at this like I would other match ups, I wouldn’t ever be telling anyone to play Wyoming this week.
Luckily I don’t give out plays on or against Wyoming in most cases because I don’t want any bias to get in the way. Unless they fit some really really great system, I stay away from Wyoming games.
I’m just going to sit back and hope Wyoming wins but also realize they are in a very tough spot this week. They have some injuries also. So that doesn’t help them. Hopefully Waylee can go but who knows. If he does he probably isn’t 100%.