307bball wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 2:28 pm
Once again...it has to be pointed out that qb's do not get better at throwing. The only time that has ever happened was JA...And there are a lot of factors that statheads point to that it is not JA's throwing that has improved...rather it has more to do with external factors. This is, of course, another black eye for the coaches since, if true, that would mean that the success of JA was actually hindered by the staff. Now, I don't think that to be literally true but I do not hold out hope that any coach is going to make somebody a better thrower of the football.
It is indeed rare that QBs improve their throwing significantly between college and the NFL, but there is ample evidence that QBs do get better at throwing _during_ college.
Just to look at where you might have gotten it from that QBs don't improve, I found an article that compared completion percentages of QBs from high school to college to show they had the same average when averaged over all players... in two completely different leagues, with completely different teams, and ignoring quality of competition.
Meanwhile, if you instead look at QBs and their completion percentages over time in college with the SAME team, a different story is presented. The very article who compared high school and college even points out that "Lock’s completion percentage in college improved from 49.0 to 54.6 to 57.8 to 62.9. Stafford’s improved from 52.7 to 55.7 to 61.4." Unfortunately then it averaged those out can compared it to their high school numbers again to prove they didn't improve...
You can look at current college QBs too... here's the current NCAA leaderboard and how much they have improved from their first year of college:
Dillon Gabriel - UCF: 2.4% (2 years)
Kyle Trask - FLA: 7.8% (3 years)
Mac Jones - ALA: 6.9% (2 years... didn't start enough his first year, or this would be 40%+)
Shane Buechele - SMU: 5% (5 years, one of which he got injured and barely played)
Sam Howell - UNC: 7.4% (2 years)
Zach Wilson - BYU: 7.1% (3 years)
Brady White - MEM: 8.8% (4 years)
Matt Corrall - MISS: 23.9% (2 years)... so this is a ridiculous outlier.
Phil Jurkovec - BC: Only had 15 attempts before this year.
Spencer Rattler - OU: Only 11 attempts before this year.
Do o-lines and receiver talent matter? Of course it does... but that changes a lot less year to year than between high school and college.
Heck, if you want to look outside of the top of NCAA, how about in our own conference?
Carson Strong - NEV: 5.4% (2 years)
Chevan Cordeiro - HAW: 4.8% (2 years)
Jake Haener - FRES: only 13 attempts before this year
Nick Starkel - SJSU: 6.2% (3 years plus one injured)
Levi Williams - Only had 39 attempts before this season
Sadly, that's the top 5 due to injuries and cancellations. Still, the trend continues. Useless exercise? I don't know, but it does seem like the trend is that QBs who start multiple years in college tend to improve their completion percentages. Nothing says that can't/won't happen with ours.