Ok..fair enough, here is my "shot"ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 23, 2021 5:06 pmThe thread is "call your shot". I can predict that next year our record will be 0 wins if everything falls apart and we'll be undefeated if everything comes together. We could also win just 1 game, or 2 games, or 3 games, or ....... What fun is that? Of course anything can happen. I'm calling it that Vigen was so bad the offense is going to see significant and noticeable improvement without him.
1. The offense will be better (In this you and I agree)
2. Brent Vigen is a bad OC no matter what the offense does next year (in this you and I disagree)
Those are not conflicting ... your example of a prediction on wins that contains a ton of nested if statements is not applicable here. There is really only one "shot" to call...what do you predict the offense to do next year? The other question is: Based on what you think the offense will do, what does that mean about Brent Vigen's ability as an OC? One is a prediction and the other is an opinion.
Your initial list of "shots" to call included the question "Do you think Vigen is the biggest factor holding the offense back?". That is a super interesting question ... and the reason it is interesting is that its is completely unproveable...at least it is unproveable with our level of access to what goes on in the inner workings of the program. My opinion is that what he brought to the table represented the largest factor in how the offense struggled, but that contribution was nowhere near 50%. It is my opinion that if you hold everything constant and just replace Vigen....the improvement would have been minor or not at all. Now...nobody can run that experiment so that will have to remain firmly in the realm of opinion.
I believe the offense will be better because more than just Vigen has changed. I believe that style changes are going to be embraced in ways that the Bohl/Vigen combo was unwilling or unable to pull off.