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Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 4:24 pm
by ragtimejoe1
All you economists out there, how bad do you think it will get? All roses? Depression? Food shortages?
Personally, something seems way off. I'm afraid of what's coming this year. I have no idea what it will be; maybe nothing. Still seems like things are on pretty shaky ground right now.
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:56 am
by McPeachy
ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 4:24 pm
All you economists out there, how bad do you think it will get? All roses? Depression? Food shortages?
Personally, something seems way off. I'm afraid of what's coming this year. I have no idea what it will be; maybe nothing. Still seems like things are on pretty shaky ground right now.
I am concerned about the "return" pricing of consumer goods as well...will we ever see prices pre-2020 / Covid / Biden?
Paid $6.49 for a pack of 6 f-word hotdogs last week...
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 11:13 am
by ragtimejoe1
McPeachy wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:56 am
ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 4:24 pm
All you economists out there, how bad do you think it will get? All roses? Depression? Food shortages?
Personally, something seems way off. I'm afraid of what's coming this year. I have no idea what it will be; maybe nothing. Still seems like things are on pretty shaky ground right now.
I am concerned about the "return" pricing of consumer goods as well...will we ever see prices pre-2020 / Covid / Biden?
Paid $6.49 for a pack of 6 f##k[#] hotdogs last week...
Yeah, the transportation inflation alone stands to derail many supply chains. Wheat is at an all time low in terms of storage. They are already limiting purchases of flour, pasta, etc. in some areas of Europe.
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 11:14 am
by Wyokie
McPeachy wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:56 am
ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 4:24 pm
All you economists out there, how bad do you think it will get? All roses? Depression? Food shortages?
Personally, something seems way off. I'm afraid of what's coming this year. I have no idea what it will be; maybe nothing. Still seems like things are on pretty shaky ground right now.
I am concerned about the "return" pricing of consumer goods as well...will we ever see prices pre-2020 / Covid / Biden?
Paid $6.49 for a pack of 6 f-word hotdogs last week...
$4.39 gas here in OKC. And Oklahoma is usually the cheapest state in terms of gas prices.
Saw a headline the other day that 1) grocery prices will double this coming fall; and 2) the price for eggs will be around $12!!!
Feels like a powder keg is going to explode and all hell breaks loose somehow. Sadly we won't know when and/or where that "keg" will explode.
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:35 am
by CowboyNV
ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 4:24 pm
All you economists out there, how bad do you think it will get? All roses? Depression? Food shortages?
Personally, something seems way off. I'm afraid of what's coming this year. I have no idea what it will be; maybe nothing. Still seems like things are on pretty shaky ground right now.
We've been here before. When Reagan was president in 1981 inflation rates were higher than they are right now, mortgage interest rates averaged over 16.5%, and the Savings and Loan industry started to go under after the Federal Reserve raised the discount rate that it charged its member banks from 9.5 percent to 12 percent in an effort to reduce inflation (Reagan's deregulation of banks was a contributing factor as well). People were freaking out trying to get their money out before they closed the doors...it was an absolute cluster f-word. So, while it is bad now, it can get a hell of a lot worse. The good news is we survived it back then and we will survive it again, in spite of poop leadership by both parties.
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Sat Jun 11, 2022 8:33 am
by ragtimejoe1
CowboyNV wrote: ↑Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:35 am
ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 4:24 pm
All you economists out there, how bad do you think it will get? All roses? Depression? Food shortages?
Personally, something seems way off. I'm afraid of what's coming this year. I have no idea what it will be; maybe nothing. Still seems like things are on pretty shaky ground right now.
We've been here before. When Reagan was president in 1981 inflation rates were higher than they are right now, mortgage interest rates averaged over 16.5%, and the Savings and Loan industry started to go under after the Federal Reserve raised the discount rate that it charged its member banks from 9.5 percent to 12 percent in an effort to reduce inflation (Reagan's deregulation of banks was a contributing factor as well). People were freaking out trying to get their money out before they closed the doors...it was an absolute cluster [#]f##k. So, while it is bad now, it can get a hell of a lot worse. The good news is we survived it back then and we will survive it again, in spite of Sh#t leadership by both parties.
There are some big differences. We are a descending superpower now. There is a real risk of the dollar no longer being the world standard. We've exploited that luxury and robbed the world far too long. 85%+ of our ports are foreign owned and our manufacturing is now overseas. Our supply chains are more global, consolidated, and fragile. The fed is trying quantitative tightening which has never been done in the history of the world.
They lost control of this bitch
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:59 pm
by LanderPoke
Yay!!!! I'm sure glad they shut down the world's economy for what amounted to less than the flu for the extreme majority of people. TOTALY worth it.
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:51 am
by ragtimejoe1
I've never seen a more incompetent sob when it comes to many things especially energy.
His approach to energy will make all of this much worse.
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:57 pm
by WestWYOPoke
LanderPoke wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:59 pm
Yay!!!! I'm sure glad they shut down the world's economy for what amounted to
less than the flu for the extreme majority of people. TOTALY worth it.
False
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2022 8:05 am
by ragtimejoe1
WestWYOPoke wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:57 pm
LanderPoke wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:59 pm
Yay!!!! I'm sure glad they shut down the world's economy for what amounted to
less than the flu for the extreme majority of people. TOTALY worth it.
False
At minimum it is abundantly clear wrecking the economy and other liberal attempts at mitigation were useless including the Trump vaccine. Before you start, give the epidemiological data sufficient time. Just like the first shot which required a booster and now another booster; it's because they don't work past a month or so.
The COVID response is the biggest blunder in US history. The Biden presidency is a close second. The latter will jump the former when he boldly leads us into the worst depression in US history while overseeing the removal of the dollar as the world's currency
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:28 am
by LanderPoke
WestWYOPoke wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:57 pm
LanderPoke wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:59 pm
Yay!!!! I'm sure glad they shut down the world's economy for what amounted to
less than the flu for the extreme majority of people. TOTALY worth it.
False
For everyone under about 80 yes.
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Sat Jun 18, 2022 4:46 am
by ragtimejoe1
It's different this time. Simplistic read but good points. We're screwed.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/opini ... 665634001/
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2022 12:58 pm
by LanderPoke
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:08 pm
by laxwyo
I've listened to Peter Schiff talk about economics quite a bit and he's always said that we're going to pay the piper and it looks like it's finally here. You can't print money the way we have and not have consequences. The Fed doesn't want to cure inflation this time because inflation is the only way we can service the debt we have. The problem is that wages won't increase fast enough and everyone will be much much poorer. The government needs to get it's spending under control.
“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy...”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:53 am
by ragtimejoe1
LanderPoke wrote: ↑Sun Jun 19, 2022 12:58 pm
Paywall ed!
Hmm, free for me. Gist: US government originally borrowing from Social Security and paying Social Security back + interest. Now Social Security doesn't have enough cash to support itself or the government's borrowing problem.
Government solved this by borrowing from the Fed. Main difference is Social Security didn't create more cash. It was taken from taxpayers, put in the account, then borrowed. The only way they could borrow from the Fed is create more cash out of thin air. This results in inflation.
We don't have enough money to cover our current spending much less our future obligations. poop is about to hit the fan.
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:54 am
by ragtimejoe1
laxwyo wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:08 pm
I've listened to Peter Schiff talk about economics quite a bit and he's always said that we're going to pay the piper and it looks like it's finally here. You can't print money the way we have and not have consequences. The Fed doesn't want to cure inflation this time because inflation is the only way we can service the debt we have. The problem is that wages won't increase fast enough and everyone will be much much poorer. The government needs to get it's spending under control.
“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy...”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler
This is it. People need to quit relying on the government and the government needs to reprioritize to the basic fundamentals it was intended for. I hope we have the intestinal fortitude to do what needs to be done.
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:36 am
by LanderPoke
ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:53 am
LanderPoke wrote: ↑Sun Jun 19, 2022 12:58 pm
Paywall ed!
Hmm, free for me. Gist: US government originally borrowing from Social Security and paying Social Security back + interest. Now Social Security doesn't have enough cash to support itself or the government's borrowing problem.
Government solved this by borrowing from the Fed. Main difference is Social Security didn't create more cash. It was taken from taxpayers, put in the account, then borrowed. The only way they could borrow from the Fed is create more cash out of thin air. This results in inflation.
We don't have enough money to cover our current spending much less our future obligations. Sh#t is about to hit the fan.
Tried it today and now I can read it, weird!
My Lord, we have committed to 100 trillion of obligations (and growing) while only bringing in 4 trillion per year. We're sooooo screwed
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:41 am
by Wyokie
ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:54 am
laxwyo wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:08 pm
I've listened to Peter Schiff talk about economics quite a bit and he's always said that we're going to pay the piper and it looks like it's finally here. You can't print money the way we have and not have consequences. The Fed doesn't want to cure inflation this time because inflation is the only way we can service the debt we have. The problem is that wages won't increase fast enough and everyone will be much much poorer. The government needs to get it's spending under control.
“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy...”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler
This is it. People need to quit relying on the government and the government needs to reprioritize to the basic fundamentals it was intended for. I hope we have the intestinal fortitude to do what needs to be done.
What about the elderly and the physically disabled like myself? I get a monthly check (direct deposit) from the Feds to allow me to be independent enough...O.K. barely enough...financially.
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:48 am
by LanderPoke
Wyokie wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:41 am
ragtimejoe1 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:54 am
laxwyo wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:08 pm
I've listened to Peter Schiff talk about economics quite a bit and he's always said that we're going to pay the piper and it looks like it's finally here. You can't print money the way we have and not have consequences. The Fed doesn't want to cure inflation this time because inflation is the only way we can service the debt we have. The problem is that wages won't increase fast enough and everyone will be much much poorer. The government needs to get it's spending under control.
“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy...”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler
This is it. People need to quit relying on the government and the government needs to reprioritize to the basic fundamentals it was intended for. I hope we have the intestinal fortitude to do what needs to be done.
What about the elderly and the physically disabled like myself? I get a monthly check (direct deposit) from the Feds to allow me to be independent enough...O.K. barely enough...financially.
Perhaps we can't subsidize the world's freedom and security anymore. I'd rather give my tax dollars to someone like you, my brother, than to corrupt governments in eastern europe, the military industrial complex, lobbyists, corrupt assholes in one of the endless government agencies or other political potlickers.
Re: Predictions: recession, stagflation, depression?
Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:55 am
by LanderPoke
Sorry, I'm rambling today, but like, for poop's sake, how much does the average person draw a month from social security? $1,600? How much is the average SS deduction on a person's wages, employer and employee? like $500-$600. Doesn't take a genius to see this is not sustainable, especially with an ageing population and a workforce participation rate of like 60% and declining.