The Football Program: Is this as good as it can get?

[DamThatRiver22]

My point is that when there are 110+ coaches that run a better offense than you, and 120+ of them run different offenses than you...and 75+ of them play far stronger competition than you...you can't just rely on the excuse that "it's tough to compete out there". The problem really isn't that deep. And you can't compare wildly different situations and claim there's any parallels there.

On another note, the Frost hire was not as slam dunk as a few seemed to think. There was a recency bias there combined with the fact that he was a hometown hero coming back to Lincoln, but UCF fans long warned that it might not pan out. Frost's resume actually wasn't that great and there were a number of factors that played into his own "lightning in a bottle" year that he was never going to replicate at Nebraska because he's actually not that great of a head coach.

Interestingly enough, Bohl was certainly a great hire at the time...but the warning signs regarding Vigen and their offenses were there a long time ago too. There's a reason "Fire Vigen, Save Season" on the NDSU board is perhaps the longest-running messageboard thread in CFB history and became a literal meme after he began to fail at Wyoming. Lol. Even though their offenses are capable of succeeding in the FCS and the B1G, it's a dying breed of offense and there's a reason we don't see it much at the FBS level.

As to your larger point...all programs rise and fall, especially as the landscape and the game changes. We understand that. No one expects domination, and no one expects anybody but Nick Saban to maintain such a lengthy run of domination in the modern CFB era.

Wyoming fans wanting one championship after a 29 year drought, or even just a second championship appearance in their entire 23-year MWC history, is not that much to ask. Especially when we've been so close and the problems are pretty dang obvious. Literally one or two more wins a year...e.g., not dropping our typical 1-3 absolute headscratchers per year and not having some of the worst offenses in FBS...would get us there, and it is not too big of a mountain to climb for Wyoming football. And it's painfully obvious that Bohl can't get it done (for very specific reasons), and I refuse to believe it's too much of a gamble to look for someone who is stronger in the specific areas that he is weak.

[307bball]

My point is that when there are 110+ coaches that run a better offense than you, and 120+ of them run different offenses than you...and 75+ of them play far stronger competition than you...you can't just rely on the excuse that "it's tough to compete out there". The problem really isn't that deep. And you can't compare wildly different situations and claim there's any parallels there.

On another note, the Frost hire was not as slam dunk as a few seemed to think. There was a recency bias there combined with the fact that he was a hometown hero coming back to Lincoln, but UCF fans long warned that it might not pan out. Frost's resume actually wasn't that great and there were a number of factors that played into his own "lightning in a bottle" year that he was never going to replicate at Nebraska because he's actually not that great of a head coach.

Interestingly enough, Bohl was certainly a great hire at the time...but the warning signs regarding Vigen and their offenses were there a long time ago too. There's a reason "Fire Vigen, Save Season" on the NDSU board is perhaps the longest-running messageboard thread in CFB history and became a literal meme after he began to fail at Wyoming. Lol. Even though their offenses are capable of succeeding in the FCS and the B1G, it's a dying breed of offense and there's a reason we don't see it much at the FBS level.

As to your larger point...all programs rise and fall, especially as the landscape and the game changes. We understand that. No one expects domination, and no one expects anybody but Nick Saban to maintain such a lengthy run of domination in the modern CFB era.

Wyoming fans wanting one championship after a 29 year drought, or even just a second championship appearance in their entire 23-year MWC history, is not that much to ask. Especially when we've been so close and the problems are pretty dang obvious. Literally one or two more wins a year...e.g., not dropping our typical 1-3 absolute headscratchers per year and not having some of the worst offenses in FBS...would get us there, and it is not too big of a mountain to climb for Wyoming football. And it's painfully obvious that Bohl can't get it done (for very specific reasons), and I refuse to believe it's too much of a gamble to look for someone who is stronger in the specific areas that he is weak.

Well...it's obvious you and I disagree fairly significantly on what's actually going on here. I think you have a hindsight issue and are minimizing the problems that come with succeeding in college football....but the conversation is interesting.

[laxwyo]

I think Craig looks at the plays that didn't work and says to himself, "If X had done this, it would have worked". To him, it's not scheme, it's execution. Therefore, it's always about getting the players to execute better. Personally, for most of his tenure, we've ran the ball really good outside of 2017 when we didn't even have a real RB on the roster and through out some LB and wasted Josh's final year. Brian Hill leaving early didn't help but whatever. Does the run game we have just not translate to a passing game that's very effective? Maybe. It's baffling that we can't shred teams through the air on short yardage situations. A lot of that is talent for sure. With so many Air Raid type offenses, I think there isn't a lot leftover. Look at the NFL, WR talent is literally the limiting factor on most teams and their QBs.

[DamThatRiver22]

I think Craig looks at the plays that didn't work and says to himself, "If X had done this, it would have worked". To him, it's not scheme, it's execution.

This is actually a big part of Harsin's downfall and one of the biggest criticisms of him towards the end of his BSU tenure, and also at Auburn. "Execution" became a broken-record catchphrase. At a certain point, some coaches don't understand is that the reason players can't "execute" your offense/defense is because the scheme itself isn't a good fit for your personnel, doesn't work against your competition, or you can't develop players well enough for your purposes.

Does the run game we have just not translate to a passing game that's very effective?

Not really, not in this particular offensive scheme in modern CFB...and there's specific reasons for that that I've touched on a couple of times.

As for your comment about WRs...we've had plenty of WR talent. The problem is we can't seem to develop it; that's partially scheme, and partially the fact that we continue to allow people like Mike Grant to fail upwards within the program. (Grant coached WRs and has moved up to AHC/Passing Game Coordinator; he's been with us 7 years in spite of his parts of the team specifically being some of our biggest issues.)

[ragtimejoe1]

From a stability standpoint, yes, I think this is the best it can get. From a ceiling standpoint, no, I think the ceiling could be higher (Craig Bohl with a passing a game could do it).

With all that said and the reason this type of struggle is at all levels is simple statistics. There are 131 FBS schools. I haven't done the math, but only a certain percentage of those can be 8+, 10+, etc, win teams. When you consider the traditional powerhouses (facilities, financial support, probably shady dealings, coaching, huge fanbases, etc. etc.), then that percentage decreases even more. You almost know the top 25 every year without a game ever being played (obviously a few surprises and you don't know exactly where teams will fall within the T25--it is still relatively predictable).

bsu's run for a G5 team was remarkable but likely not repeatable. It wasn't a single thing but a combination of AD, coaching, fans, infrastructure, winning in a weak conference, building, recruiting, etc. I'm not sure if the environment today will ever yield another bsu.

The question isn't "is this the best", but "is the abyss worth the chase for better?". We struggled through the abyss for a long time. Combined with more support, a much weaker conference, etc. and this is the best we've had it which is sad. There probably is a coach out there that could elevate the program significantly. However, for every 1, there are thousands that will fail like every other coach here. Do you roll the dice or hope continued investment in Bohl pays off?

I honestly don't know.

[307bball]

From a stability standpoint, yes, I think this is the best it can get. From a ceiling standpoint, no, I think the ceiling could be higher (Craig Bohl with a passing a game could do it).

With all that said and the reason this type of struggle is at all levels is simple statistics. There are 131 FBS schools. I haven't done the math, but only a certain percentage of those can be 8+, 10+, etc, win teams. When you consider the traditional powerhouses (facilities, financial support, probably shady dealings, coaching, huge fanbases, etc. etc.), then that percentage decreases even more. You almost know the top 25 every year without a game ever being played (obviously a few surprises and you don't know exactly where teams will fall within the T25--it is still relatively predictable).

bsu's run for a G5 team was remarkable but likely not repeatable. It wasn't a single thing but a combination of AD, coaching, fans, infrastructure, winning in a weak conference, building, recruiting, etc. I'm not sure if the environment today will ever yield another bsu.

The question isn't "is this the best", but "is the abyss worth the chase for better?". We struggled through the abyss for a long time. Combined with more support, a much weaker conference, etc. and this is the best we've had it which is sad. There probably is a coach out there that could elevate the program significantly. However, for every 1, there are thousands that will fail like every other coach here. Do you roll the dice or hope continued investment in Bohl pays off?

I honestly don't know.

Well said...any long term Wyoming fan has these thoughts in the back of their head no matter how much they beat their chest and demand championships. If you don't acknowledge the trickiness of this question, I would say you have not thought deeply enough about it or you really don't care about Cowboy athletics so it doesn't matter to you.

[Cornpoke]

No I don't think UW can have sustained success in football but what I hope for is that one magical season where we go undefeated and become highly ranked, then suck again. repeat every 5-8 years. The reality is that it's a tough school to maintain success, everything has to come together just right.

[laxwyo]

No I don't think UW can have sustained success in football but what I hope for is that one magical season where we go undefeated and become highly ranked, then suck again. repeat every 5-8 years. The reality is that it's a tough school to maintain success, everything has to come together just right.

I think the ceiling is much lower now with NIL and portal. I think by the time you load up for that run, the diamonds you develope bounce

[OrediggerPoke]

No I don't think UW can have sustained success in football but what I hope for is that one magical season where we go undefeated and become highly ranked, then suck again. repeat every 5-8 years. The reality is that it's a tough school to maintain success, everything has to come together just right.

I think the ceiling is much lower now with NIL and portal. I think by the time you load up for that run, the diamonds you develope bounce

I agree with this. We don’t have the donors to fund an entire football team with NIL nor should we. Basketball is interesting.

[laxwyo]

No I don't think UW can have sustained success in football but what I hope for is that one magical season where we go undefeated and become highly ranked, then suck again. repeat every 5-8 years. The reality is that it's a tough school to maintain success, everything has to come together just right.

I think the ceiling is much lower now with NIL and portal. I think by the time you load up for that run, the diamonds you develope bounce

I agree with this. We don’t have the donors to fund an entire football team with NIL nor should we. Basketball is interesting.

It’s that fear we have about losing coaches except now it’s the whole team. We go 9-3 and schools will be looking at the staff AND roster now. If your staff stays together, the ballers that got you to 9 wins will be gone or the staff gets hired and takes ballers with them. It’s depressing to think about. However, that’s probably better than going 6-6

[evilpoke]

With the resources given to the football program compared to the rest of the conference, we should be in the mix for a conference championship every year.

That should be the expectation.

[WestWYOPoke]

With the resources given to the football program compared to the rest of the conference, we should be in the mix for a conference championship every year.

That should be the expectation.

Not saying we shouldn't expect championships, but Wyoming's football budget in 2021 was 9th out of 11. I'm excluding Air Force because their budget doesn't factor in scholarships like the other MWC schools. So they were likely 10th out of 12 in the conference. Obviously the facilities are top notch, but their budget was 25% below the conference average in 2021.

[DamThatRiver22]

Not saying we shouldn't expect championships, but Wyoming's football budget in 2021 was 9th out of 11. I'm excluding Air Force because their budget doesn't factor in scholarships like the other MWC schools. So they were likely 10th out of 12 in the conference. Obviously the facilities are top notch, but their budget was 25% below the conference average in 2021.

Good point. but...perhaps there is something to be said for how funds/resources are allocated, perhaps?

Craig Bohl was the highest-paid coach in the MWC last year, and is tied for second this year I believe? (Again, excluding AFA because AFA doesn't release Calhoun's salary details.)

[evilpoke]

With the resources given to the football program compared to the rest of the conference, we should be in the mix for a conference championship every year.

That should be the expectation.

Not saying we shouldn't expect championships, but Wyoming's football budget in 2021 was 9th out of 11. I'm excluding Air Force because their budget doesn't factor in scholarships like the other MWC schools. So they were likely 10th out of 12 in the conference. Obviously the facilities are top notch, but their budget was 25% below the conference average in 2021.

Do you have the link with that info? (Pleasant request - not hostile comeback)

If it is true, then I rescind my statement.

[WestWYOPoke]

https://knightnewhousedata.org/fbs/mwc

They don't have it specifically listed for all the teams in one spot, but if you click on each school you can see what their athletic's budgets and football team's budgets are, and compare them.

[Itsux2beaewe]

NIL is going to make it tough for schools like UW. That said, when the offense was varied in the second half, even balanced, we had success. The short passes mixed with run was successful. That route to Swen was great, catching him out in the flat at full speed. Two long passes resulted in TDs. The second half offense is all I’m asking for.

[evilpoke]

https://www.sportico.com/business/comme ... 234646029/

This was actually posted on the MWC Board. 8th out of 10 teams as listed above. Need an extra $2.5M to get into middle - although, who knows if this is all apples to apples? What some school might apply to the football team in facilities, another school applies to the entire program.

When you look at the entire athletic department, Wyoming is smack in the middle.

Huge drop from 2019-20 to 2020-21 - COVID, maybe?